CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-23T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30250/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.0 flare from Active Region 13654 (S06E41) starting around 2024-04-23T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A small EUV wave is visible moving NE from the source, and post-eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2024-04-23T10:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an initial jump in solar wind speed from around 300->370 km/s alongside a jump in temperature, and a slow rise in Btotal and density starting around 2024-04-26T01:08Z, reaching a total of around 9.7 nT. Bz is predominantly southward reaching around -9nT. In the bulk speed and proton density the shock is well defined.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T00:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30263/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=484.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-23T15:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-26T22:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-30T00:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Lead Time: 30.32 hour(s)
Difference: -21.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-04-24T17:58Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement